Weekend Predictions: 02-06-09

this-baby-says-boringIf you’re going to see a movie this month, might as well make it this weekend. This is as good as it’ll get until March, when some event movies start showing up. Until then it just gets more bleak every week.

Don’t be embarrassed to ogle the spreadsheet.

First up this week is The Pink Panther 2. No, this isn’t a re-release and re-titling of A Shot in the Dark, it’s a sequel to 2006′s The Pink Panther. The first one made plenty of money, so a sequel was inevitable and I predict, as worthless. Steve Martin, shame on you. While Martin should be walking around wearing a scarlet thumbs down, the real asshole is [...]

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Weekend Report: Everyone’s Taken With Taken

The Super Bowl was not kind to the theaters. The total take at the box office was $103,002,446- 20% off from last week, but it was up $2 million from last year, so I guess that’s a success.

It turns out Liam Neeson is an action star. If I had said Taken would account for 24% of the total money spent at movie theaters this past weekend, I wouldn’t have waited for you to call me crazy, I’d have done it myself. It almost doubled my prediction and nearly hit the $26 million I originally calculated. The $24,717,037 it made was pretty impressive considering it nearly doubled up on the most popular movie of 2009- Paul Blart: Mall Cop. And it was the biggest [...]

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Weekend Predictions: 01-30-09

This will most likely be a poor weekend for movies. If you hadn’t heard, “The Big Game” is this Sunday. “The Big Game” is the Super Bowl, but since the NFL protects it’s intellectual properties like no other, you’ll hear “The Big Game” a whole lot more than Super Bowl. They tried to trademark “The Big Game” too, but that was going too far. Since the Super Bowl effectively makes Sunday the day the Earth stands still, probably going to cut into box office returns.

Check out the prediction calculations here.

The biggest new release of the weekend is Taken. The difference between this and the Luc Besson-Jason Statham actioners is that Liam Neeson is a fairly respected actor and gives the movie a [...]

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Weekend Report: Someone Keeps Blarting In The Theater

It happened again. Against all odds, or at least good judgment, Paul Blart: Mall Cop is tops at the box office for the second week in a row, finagling $21,623,182 out of unsuspecting moviegoers. It’s mind-bottling that this movie has made $65 million. Success of this magnitude guarantees more of this drivel. I can’t wait for the sequel- Hank Shart: Parking Lot Attendant.

Needless to say, my prediction of $27,139,887 for Underworld: Rise of the Lycans was off. Underworld ended the weekend in second place with $20,828,511. With all the recent success of horror movies, I really expected it to do better. Maybe My Bloody Valentine’s $10 million cut into it’s profits a little. Or maybe people aren’t all that into the whole vampire [...]

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Weekend Predictions: 01-23-09

rise-of-the-lycansNot a great weekend for new movies, this. Only two new movies will appear in more than 81 theaters, and then less than 3,000. But if you like those movies that were nominated for Academy Awards, several are expanding to wider releases. Now’s the time for them to capitalize on all that award buzz.

Check out all my detailed calculations here.

The biggest new release is the much anticipated Underworld: Rise of the Lycans, in 2,942 theaters. The first Underworld was a pretty decent movie, but the second one started getting a little too concerned with the mythology, but heck, it did outgross the first one. Even though the third installment goes to new, nerdlier, [...]

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Weekend Report: Mall Cop Makes Good

The biggest movie this weekend was, as Paul Harvey said, “something called Paul Blart: Mall Cop.” Somehow this movie exceeded everyone’s expectations, including Sony Pictures. It was the only new movie that is really accessible to all demographics and it took advantage of it.

Paul Blart made me look pretty stupid for predicting $13,028,182. The total for the three day weekend came to $31,832,636. Unfortunately my formula is unable to account for the tastes of American moviegoers. One weekend it’s an aging actor in what could be his career-defining role (Gran Torino), the next it’s a critically-bashed Die Hard-esque family comedy. Go figure. For those interested, blart is a portmanteau of the words blood and fart.

My Bloody Valentine 3-D came in third at [...]

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Weekend Predictions: 01-16-09

It’s January and the studios are still cleansing their bowels of the movies that can’t hang with the big boys. If you don’t believe me, I offer implicit proof in the form of Hotel for Dogs being the widest release this weekend.

I’d like enter this spreadsheet into evidence as exhibit A.

Hotel for Dogs is being unleashed in 3,271 theaters this weekend. It’s a movie about a couple of kids that turn a dilapidated hotel into a refuge for stray dogs. I wish someone would have put a muzzle on the guy that pitched this idea. Dog jokes used up. The movie stars a couple kids who’ve appeared in a couple kid movies and is directed by a guy who’s few movies weren’t [...]

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Weekend Report: Clint Calls Box Office A Punk, Makes His Day

clint-eastwoodYou’ve got to hand it to Clint Eastwood. Really, you do. How many 78-year old directors could cast themselves to play a curmudgeony racist and crack $10,000 per theater in wide release? That list has to be small. That list might only include Clint Eastwood.

I thought Gran Torino would slide in at second place for the weekend at about $15-17 million. Instead Torino whooped up on everything else, pulled in $29,484,388, and sits at number one. This was easily the biggest weekend for any movie that’s had Eastwood’s name attached. Space Cowboys, which he also directed and starred in, is a distant second at $18 million. The fact that some are saying this is [...]

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Weekend Predictions: 01-09-09

the-unborn-posterFinally, some new releases for 2009. Since we’re now out of award qualification season, we’ll start to see more crappy movies as the studios dump them into the toilet bowl that is January. The two biggest new releases this weekend are Bride Wars and The Unborn. Please, whatever you do, go see something else. See Marley and Me again. Watch clouds pass by. Just don’t see either of these two movies- your brains cells will be better for it.

Check out all the details on the spreadsheet.

Two women, best friends, are getting married. They’ll be each other’s maids of honor. They’ve both booked their dream venue, The Plaza Hotel. But by some fluke their [...]

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Assessing The Weekend: Quiet As A Mouse

christmas-mouseI suppose it was pretty appropriate that a movie about a mouse was released on the last quiet weekend of the year. It wasn’t the smallest weekend of the year, but after a booming November, December has really tailed off. Maybe it’s due to the quality of the movies or maybe the general bad weather across most of the country. Whichever it really is, I attribute it to the former.

Yes Man won the weekend with an $18 million haul. It wasn’t spectacular, but it was enough. It was well short of my $28 million prediction. Part of my misfire was due to producer David Heyman’s last four movies averaging between $17,000 and $26,000 per [...]

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