Weekend Predictions: 01-30-09

This will most likely be a poor weekend for movies. If you hadn’t heard, “The Big Game” is this Sunday. “The Big Game” is the Super Bowl, but since the NFL protects it’s intellectual properties like no other, you’ll hear “The Big Game” a whole lot more than Super Bowl. They tried to trademark “The Big Game” too, but that was going too far. Since the Super Bowl effectively makes Sunday the day the Earth stands still, probably going to cut into box office returns.

Check out the prediction calculations here.

The biggest new release of the weekend is Taken. The difference between this and the Luc Besson-Jason Statham actioners is that Liam Neeson is a fairly respected actor and gives the movie a [...]

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Weekend Predictions: 01-23-09

rise-of-the-lycansNot a great weekend for new movies, this. Only two new movies will appear in more than 81 theaters, and then less than 3,000. But if you like those movies that were nominated for Academy Awards, several are expanding to wider releases. Now’s the time for them to capitalize on all that award buzz.

Check out all my detailed calculations here.

The biggest new release is the much anticipated Underworld: Rise of the Lycans, in 2,942 theaters. The first Underworld was a pretty decent movie, but the second one started getting a little too concerned with the mythology, but heck, it did outgross the first one. Even though the third installment goes to new, nerdlier, [...]

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Weekend Report: Mall Cop Makes Good

The biggest movie this weekend was, as Paul Harvey said, “something called Paul Blart: Mall Cop.” Somehow this movie exceeded everyone’s expectations, including Sony Pictures. It was the only new movie that is really accessible to all demographics and it took advantage of it.

Paul Blart made me look pretty stupid for predicting $13,028,182. The total for the three day weekend came to $31,832,636. Unfortunately my formula is unable to account for the tastes of American moviegoers. One weekend it’s an aging actor in what could be his career-defining role (Gran Torino), the next it’s a critically-bashed Die Hard-esque family comedy. Go figure. For those interested, blart is a portmanteau of the words blood and fart.

My Bloody Valentine 3-D came in third at [...]

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Weekend Predictions: 01-16-09

It’s January and the studios are still cleansing their bowels of the movies that can’t hang with the big boys. If you don’t believe me, I offer implicit proof in the form of Hotel for Dogs being the widest release this weekend.

I’d like enter this spreadsheet into evidence as exhibit A.

Hotel for Dogs is being unleashed in 3,271 theaters this weekend. It’s a movie about a couple of kids that turn a dilapidated hotel into a refuge for stray dogs. I wish someone would have put a muzzle on the guy that pitched this idea. Dog jokes used up. The movie stars a couple kids who’ve appeared in a couple kid movies and is directed by a guy who’s few movies weren’t [...]

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Weekend Report: Clint Calls Box Office A Punk, Makes His Day

clint-eastwoodYou’ve got to hand it to Clint Eastwood. Really, you do. How many 78-year old directors could cast themselves to play a curmudgeony racist and crack $10,000 per theater in wide release? That list has to be small. That list might only include Clint Eastwood.

I thought Gran Torino would slide in at second place for the weekend at about $15-17 million. Instead Torino whooped up on everything else, pulled in $29,484,388, and sits at number one. This was easily the biggest weekend for any movie that’s had Eastwood’s name attached. Space Cowboys, which he also directed and starred in, is a distant second at $18 million. The fact that some are saying this is [...]

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Weekend Predictions: 01-09-09

the-unborn-posterFinally, some new releases for 2009. Since we’re now out of award qualification season, we’ll start to see more crappy movies as the studios dump them into the toilet bowl that is January. The two biggest new releases this weekend are Bride Wars and The Unborn. Please, whatever you do, go see something else. See Marley and Me again. Watch clouds pass by. Just don’t see either of these two movies- your brains cells will be better for it.

Check out all the details on the spreadsheet.

Two women, best friends, are getting married. They’ll be each other’s maids of honor. They’ve both booked their dream venue, The Plaza Hotel. But by some fluke their [...]

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Weekend Predictions: 12-19-08

tale-of-despereaux-bookWell it’s finally the big, huge pre-Christmas weekend. It’s also the weekend where they shoehorn in the movies that couldn’t hang with the big boys in November but are too big to dump in January.

Snatch up a copy of my spreadsheet before they’re all gone.

The biggest release this weekend is Yes Man, in 3,434 theaters. It looks to be Jim Carrey’s return to inane comedy. He hasn’t gotten to run around flapping his arms and making faces much since Bruce Almighty. You could argue that Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears a Who and Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events were big successes for Carrey, but seeing as how there’s someone else’s name in [...]

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Assessing The Weekend: Bullseye

bullseyeI don’t like to toot my own horn. Really I don’t. But like Jerry Reed said, when you’re hot, you’re hot. For the second time, I’ve nearly nailed one of my predictions. The Day the Earth Stood Still ended the weekend at $30,480,153. My prediction was $30,308,659, a difference of $171,494. Not as close as I was on Max Payne, but not bad using a formula to make a prediction to the dollar.

TDTESS didn’t do as well as some of the recent sci-fi remakes, but it should do alright. $30 million against the $80 million budget isn’t a great number, but TDTESS has been pretty popular oversees and should turn a nice profit once [...]

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Weekend Predictions: 12-12-08

What a weekend for the triumphant return of the weekend predictions. We’ve got a overwrought sci-fi remake and an animated movie that no one has heard of. They’re the two widest releases, but they’re on total opposite ends of the spectrum.

Check out the handy spreadsheet.

The biggest release of the weekend, and the biggest in Alpha Centauri, is The Day the Earth Stood Still. If they were going to send a movie into space, why not a good movie? Fortunately all the residents of Alpha Centauri have four years for this movie to arrive. At least they have more time to prepare. The rest of us have to endure this mess right now. It’s funny that both Keanu Reeves and director Scott Derrickson [...]

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Assessing The Weekend: Holiday Crapshoot

If you hadn’t noticed, I passed on making a prediction for this past weekend. Aside from making changes to the site, I just wasn’t sure how to approach the long weekend- four days for most of us, but five days as far as movies are concerned. Maybe Thanksgiving day would be especially high or low, maybe Wednesday and Thursday would be big and the rest of the weekend would peter out. And my uncertainty wasn’t totally unfounded: Wednesday the 19th made $6,526,023 while the 26th pulled in $33,325,833, yet Friday, Saturday, and Sunday were nearly the same as the previous week.

Somehow 4.4 million people went to see Four Christmases. That was enough to win [...]

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