Weekend Predictions: 05-22-09

The combination of a scifi action movie, a family movie, and a comedy has been pretty popular with Hollywood. So far this year we’ve seen the combination on February 6th, May 1st, and April 10th. Oh, and again this weekend.

Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian plays the role of the family movie. The difference between this movie and the original is that it takes place in SURPRISE! the Smithsonian. Other than giving the museum more advertising than it’s ever had during it’s entire existence, I suppose all it really means is that there will be different exhibits to rankle Ben Stiller’s character, which is probably all people really want out of the movie: Ben Stiller overacting.

The first Night at the Museum made $250 million domestically. It opened to $30 million, but the second weekend shot up to almost $37 million. It’s pretty rare to see the second weekend bigger than the first, most likely the result of some great word of mouth. I’m not sure if it’s really the case, but there doesn’t seem to me to be a whole lot of buzz around the movie. Could it be that this was a one-shot idea and putting the same characters in a different museum sounds ridiculously contrived? What’s next, Adventures in the Museum of Modern Art? I’ll say the Smithsonian edition of Night at the Museum takes in around $49,600,469 this weekend, solid, but not spectacular. I still find it hard to see how the guys behind Reno 911! wrote both these movies.

It’s been six years since the last Terminator movie, but that’s probably not enough time for most people to get suped about another sequel. T3 had the biggest opening weekend of the series, but T2 had the biggest overall box office. I read that as people were excited for a sequel but less than thrilled with what they got. Terminator Salvation is going to change things up by moving to the future and giving us that back-story. There will be some people who are extremely geeked out to see that, but Joe Matinee might not be wetting himself over it. After all, this is another big-budget scifi movie, which have been showing up in droves lately. Eventually audiences will tire of it. I’m not sure about the long-term outlook for the movie, but I’ll say it goes for about $59,946,935 from Friday to Sunday. Too much competition from movies in the same genre right now for it to go higher.

Lastly we’ve got Dance Flick, and it’s relying like hell on the Wayans name. And really, that name is the only chance this movie has. Spoof movies have gone from silly to nigh-insufferable. Who saw Disaster Movie? Superhero Movie? Did you even know there was a Superhero Movie? The genre had been going a similar route at the end of the 1990′s with stuff like Mafia! and Plump Fiction flinging poo at your eyes. Then Scary Movie dropped in 2000 and reinvigorated the whole thing. That’s what Paramount is hoping will happen with Dance Flick, but this time they’re resting those hopes on the backs of the progeny of the folks that made Scary Movie, familiar sounding names like Damien Wayans and Damon Wayans Jr. But you can tell this just isn’t the same thing by reading the credits. There are characters such as Tracy Transfat, Uglisha, Ms. Cameltoe, and the whole Brady Bunch. This sounds all too similar to the same crap we’ve been getting since, well Date Movie, anyway. It makes me yearn for the days of Hot Shots!, or even Hot Shots! Part Deux. I think the familiar names behind the movie might get it to $9,517,788 this weekend.

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