Weekend Predictions: 05-15-09

You’d think that Hollywood studios are always competing against each other, but this month’s evidence shows that it’s really a coordinated dance. The big movie season kicked off with X-Men Origins: Wolverine on May 1st. That was a Fox release. The only new competition that weekend was from Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros.), which aimed for a totally different audience than Wolverine. The next weekend Paramount released Star Trek, the only other new wide release was a tiny comedy from tiny distributor Summit Entertainment. This weekend Sony is releasing Angels & Demons, the only wide release. Next weekend has Paramount releasing a comedy, Fox a family movie, and Warner Bros. a big scifi actioner. The last week of May brings a Disney animated movie and a Universal horrorfest. All the studios get their chance to have a week to themselves without any new competition.

Sony’s big chance comes in the form of Angels & Demons, sequel to The Da Vinci Code. I hated that movie. Ugh. All of the “clues” were just weird inferences that went way over the top. Just ridiculous. And the thing had more endings than Return of the King. It ended and went on for another 20 minutes or half-hour or something. I’m not really sure since I was nearly unconscious from the ludicrosity. Personally, I think South Park had a much more accurate asessment of da Vinci’s clues.

I’m likely in the minority since The Da Vinci Code made $217 million. So it’s got that going for it. It also has the synergy of Tom Hanks and Ron Howard, which have thus far combined for nearly half a billion dollars at the box office. It’s a winning combination and should win this weekend with a haul somewhere around $64,112,192.

A&D probably has some competition from Star Trek, which seems to getting good word of mouth and generally pleasing audiences. Wolverine will actually be in the most theaters this weekend, but that thing is losing an audience faster than… well, pretty fast. The daily gross for Wolverine has been down almost 65% from the first to second weeks. If that trend continues, the movie will have a hard time getting above $10 million for the weekend. That’s a quick fall for a  movie that opened to $85 million.

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