Weekend Report: Hannah Montana Not As Popular As Jesus

miley-cyrus-winkWith this past Sunday being Easter, it finally provided the ultimate showdown we’ve all been waiting for: Hannah Montana versus Jesus. You’d think that if The Beatles were more popular than Jesus, well Hannah Montana was a shoe-in. As it turns out, God’s kid is still more popular than Disney’s.

Hannah Montana the Movie got off to a relatively big $17.5 million Friday, but by Sunday had dropped to a scant $4.5 million, a drop so precipitous that it takes the record for the most front-loaded opening weekend away from Twilight. I’m not exactly sure what comment this makes about the world or movies, but having the two most front-loaded movies in history occur this year has to mean something. My take is this illustrates the extent to which Hollywood is going to cater to niche audiences. Hannah Montana, Twilight, and Watchmen all have a fervent fan base, but it mainly falls within a particular, narrow demographic. Once those hardcore fans have seen the movie, there’s no long tail since the movie doesn’t have broad appeal. It has a monster opening weekend then squeaks like a mouse until it’s finally pulled from theaters. Hannah Montana made $32,324,487 for the weekend (about $8 million more than my prediction), but 54% of that was from Friday. My guess is that the movie falls off 60-70% next weekend and becomes a footnote for having a proportionally big opening day.

I predicted about $20 million for Observe and Report. I thought that since I Love You, Man was four weeks old and Adventureland wasn’t received too well, audience would be ready for another stupid comedy. But it wasn’t to be since the movie only brought in $11 million. That probably isn’t all that bad in light of it’s $18 million budget, but certainly the studio expected more, especially since the movie was in the blazing hot mall cop genre.

My nearly $8 million prediction for Dragonball Evolution felt high, but with these surgically marketed genre movies, you never know. It looks like there really aren’t too many Dragonball or Dragon Ball fans that were salivating to see this movie: $4.7 million for the weekend. And it didn’t even make $1 million on Sunday.

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