Assessing The Weekend: Quantum Of Box Office

So, the slow Summer-Fall transition period is officially over. For the first time since the middle of August, moviegoers spent more than $100 million at the movies on back-to-back weekends. Being the only new release, Quantum of Solace was easily the big winner at $67,528,882, a full $32.5 million ahead of second place Madagascar 2. QoS became the biggest opener for the James Bond series and serves as further proof that people are digging the new take on the world’s most famous secret agent.

QoS handily beat my $56,176,149.86 prediction. After seeing this weekend’s results and trying to see what I could have tweaked in my formula to get a better result, I hit upon the idea of increasing the totals in the formula to account for inflation. I adjusted the totals on the spreadsheet to present day totals by using the yearly increase in average ticket prices. When I made those changes, and still doubled the calculated total, I got $69,508,428- off $2 million. I’ll try this going forward, but looking back, my predictions that were right on would now be high. One thing that stuck out when adjusting the totals- Die Another Day’s opening weekend jumped to $57,361,453. Looking at that number, it could be argued that, at the time, there wasn’t a need to give Bond a makeover. But seeing how things have gone since the change, I don’t think anyone would take back the decision.

Would anyone like to guess which movie already in release picked up the most screens this past weekend? That would be The Dark Knight, increasing 221 screens to 347. The second biggest was Miracle at St. Anna, picking up 56, for a total of 76. Not sure what that means, but I thought it was interesting that one tripled and the other quadrupled screens when it looked like they should be on their way out. And Fireproof has now made 60 times it’s production budget.

Next weekend should be even bigger, with the release of Bolt and Twilight, QoS pulling in another $35-40 million, and Madagascar with another $15-20 million. In fact, it could be the biggest weekend for the remainder of the year, and may end up only second to the weekend of The Dark Knight’s premiere.

3 comments to Assessing The Weekend: Quantum Of Box Office

  • I think you got pretty close as a prediction to Quantum of Solace — it is pretty hard to predict a movie that everyone wants to see. Yeah, Fireproof was a surprise.

    I think I may have to doubt next weekend with my rookie film credentials at hand. While there is no question that QOS will pull in another 30-40 million, Bolt is something I am starting to doubt. It reminds me too much of an extremely un-hyped Beverly Hills Chicacucaua.

    Sorry for the misspelling — I’m off to school. Great post, Fury

  • Furious

    Thanks, pacer.

    Yeah, some of these movies kind of boil down to a blind guess. You know it will be big, but there isn’t a whole lot of historical data to base it on.

    I could see Bolt floundering a little. It hasn’t been hyped much, but it’s hard to doubt an animated Disney movie.

    You could be right about the weekend not being that big- it’ll come down to what happens with Twilight. I’ve seen predictions ranging from the $30′s to over $100 million. It’ll be one of those crapshoot predictions.

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