Assessing The Weekend: I Must Be Doing Something Right

So, I’m not trying to gloat, really I’m not, but my prediction for Max Payne’s opening weekend was only off $48,199.42. That’s pretty darn close, closer than I ever really expected to be with any of these predictions. If I got within a million, I would have been pretty pleased. But, while I’m patting myself on the back with my left hand, I’m smacking my forehead with the right. Sex Drive missed my prediction only by about $7 million. I had deducted $4 million from the calculated total for Sex Drive based on the four movies missing from the equation. I wanted to deduct more, but I couldn’t really think of anything else that didn’t seem completely arbitrary at the time. I’ll have to come up with some sort of percentage adjustment for movies with a lot of inexperienced people.

Beverly Hills Chihuahua came in second at $11.4 million, ahead of my $10.5 prediction. It’s really incredible (to me, anyway) that that movie has had so much success. It seemed such a stupid idea, but obviously a lot of people dig it.

I think I’m getting a better idea in general, as Body of Lies and Quarantine both came in just short of my $7-8 million prediction, and if I had done the 40% decrease for Eagle Eye, I’d have nearly nailed that one, too.

This week I’ll take a crack at two movies I expect will both make their studios happy: High School Musical 3: Senior Year and Saw V.

4 comments to Assessing The Weekend: I Must Be Doing Something Right

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